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20181018 22:05:35

_:156.3264.7041ѯQ-Q:853097288 ̽˾רҵŶӣȫܣһķʮƷʱѡѡģ άΪݽɢϵϿյ

ʱ1015磬й÷չϵ̳ѧС̳ϺŰ͸ѧйоԺ죬õѧѧԺ֧֡ѧѧԺǰԺԼɪ ΡѧйоԺԺάΪйר޲ ѧŷ̳ϷּݽΪάΪڵݽ

άΪڹѧݽгóĦDzʤġ

dzܹϵչؼʱ̣ôһ̳лλ֪ѧߣǵĵʹ̳ԡ

40ǰ19761£ʱܿ״ΰй쵼˵СƽΪ￯dzͬʱͼôһ⣺йѻǵˣ(China: Friend or Foe?) ʱܶȥëϯزʱϵݱ˲ȷ40ȥˣ˽ƺ⣺йѻǵˣ

40ȥˣܶ˻⣺йѻǵˡѺйרҶ˵йԽԽӣƽʱйȽѺõʿҲҳ˵ˡͳ˹Ľ˸ойѾǡˡˣǺֲܿĵˣΪйڸԤҪһͳʵǺܶ˵뷨رǺܶ˵뷨(ȫЦ)

ұ˵ϣЩǡšϾ40䣬ĸֽϰٱ˫óΪ2017ó׶1979233˫ԱҲ޵Уÿ춼14000֮䣬ÿ17һܷɻԷҡȻͳ˲ǵóĦոչȥй조ƽܡйο½40%ࡣ

Ҫһ䡣йĹѹģ6Ԫ⻹ǰԪٷʼġչƽۼ㣬г󡣻֮йѾггóĦDzʤġ

Ҳ֪Щ˶ϵdzֹֽ۵̬ȣᣬر˹йԽԽࡣйݺУӹԱҵ綼йdzѺáй̻µҲͳóսڻҵй֮һƻһڻͶʡ

ֹ۵ǿٹ۲һʹDZ۹۵ʱռҲعȱۣϾӢи˵Thing may have to get worse before they get better (ֻб仵֮ſܱ)йҲиͬ˼ıС¶ĥ﷢չıֻ֤вϵؿ˷ìܣDzܴﵽ֪֪ˡӮҲʹڹѧеĽø⸻塣

Ҫֱ⣬̹ϹͨΨھɢϵϿյƣʹ˫߹ϵϱȽϽչĵ·ҽ̹ϵԼĹ۵㣬ҲԸشҵκʡǿκʡûнɡ

й֪˼ά߼ӮϷ

̸̸й֪

֪֮һνġ׵塱һسɴ˴ijͻսԱ⡣

֪֮йҪйģʽ

֪֮й塣

ʱ䣬Ҳ׼ϸÿһ⣬ϣʾЩĻ߼ӶһΧڶЩн⹹

ǻǻصйѻǵˡ⡣ˡֱԣⱳDZȽϵ͵ʽ˵ʽ˼ά߼߼صǺڰ׷Ǵ˼ˡӮ䡢Ϸ

ͬ߼ǰͳ ʲ˵ģҪôһҪôǵĵˡ(With us or against us)ͳйó˵ļ裺йó˳й˺ô˴

Ҹ֮Զλ͸ǵλƺҲûаͬ߼ָѶ ͢ٽڣǰˡͻۡи׶ķ ɭڣˡ׵塱ܰɭڵıͻΪֹ۵㱳߼ϷӮ䣬һȻҪһ˥Ϊۡ

йʷûжϵĹǵĻͳƺŷ޵ĸӰݺ͵һֱΪ̣ͬͬȫԻȡ̣ʵ˫ӮӮ

йĻӽ⣬ǿܲʡѻǵˡʡѣǽҪΪ(a friend or potential friend?)

֮йĻУرǴϵδͳУйҶڵѻδѣDzʶ̬ߣƶȻߡʹijԭĿǰйĹϵأǼţǿԴΪѡй⽻ߵҸΪйҴ򽻵йҶΪѺͻ顣

͸ѻǵˡ͡ѻǽҪΪѡЩIJǿԿĻͳIJرڽ̴ͳIJ

ŷʷǧڽսͬڽ֮䣬ͬһڽڲͬĽ֮䶼̡֮£йʷҲиָսڽս־޴̶ܴϣҸΪһ̴ͳйءһ̴ͳζţҵһͽȷģǴаģұһҵĵˡ

֮£йڽ̴ͳǰۺϵģйʷϳ͵ཻڡõľ棬ʹйɹ˳ڽսļ尾ҲйǧûжϵҪԭ֮һ

̩ġ˹ŵɯŷ˼̺һڽսƵŷޣ߶Ľйdz֮ΪȻڽ̡ĴͳҲнȻλϷΰͳ

Ȼйڽ̴ͳһص㣬ڽ̸ԤΣй̷ĴͳԴԶǶԴ˸еԺ

Ϊˣй˵ӽνġ׵塱ͻְᷢɭٳ16ĻзǴ˼ˡϷĹҡõйһϷĹû˵ġ֮׵塱(֪֮һ)Ȼй

ͬйҲûдʿĴͳйı˼ҵ߰Լģʽǿˡ˵ܶ෢չйҰ۹ͶйģʽǺ̶ܴǶģʽʧˣǷdzʹʧܣйлǷչĽڷչйңڰڵңᶼġ֮йҪԼģʽ֪(֪֮)ҲԳġ

һҪָɭڵ16зսĹҶžĹҡҲʷһش

ŷʷϵĵ۹϶Ǿµ۹һ֡ŷ޵۹һֱֳսֻھս󣬲ʹ˼ʹ˺ƽϵĵ·

йûĴͳ֣ʮϰҶʱˮٱ80ײ޴½ġʥǡţйûжֳйһ޽ǵ壬Ƿϵͳǽϵͳ

Ļս̬Ҳʾú

1890ǰ󾭼壬ͷսռ˷ɱ͹Ű͵ֳء֮£й2014갴չƽ۳Ϊľ壬йľʵйҲ24СʱոбڹռϺйû̸ͨн硣

ǻ׷ݵ1964տʼӵк֮ʱйʹú޺˹ʹúкҶͿսĿ־ˡ

ýй˵ǺսȻǻġйֻǴԼʷһһεУʶûǿĹͻ׸Բſʼ׷帴˺ǿĿ꣬ȡ˾޴ijɹй˶ԼĹģйκιҶйս֮йĹ۵(֪֮)ȻҲվסŵġ

ʹ뵽˴ԼһǰӢѧصйãʱով˲ʹĵһսĻбĴͳ̷ʡйкƽĴͳ߶ʱй֪ʶʿڹұǿһһδܣɥʧ˱ҪĻšԶָһ죬йӵ㹻֮ʣй˳кƽĻ츣硣

ҸΪ̶ܴϾййͨԼʮIJиܶϷչˣ˳ֵйȻҲйڴ˻ϣȫƶƽ뷢չ̹ġһһ·飬Ž͵Ĵϵͬ˹ͬ塣

һ޴սѡ񣬲ǰٱĺӮѡ

ʷչһؼʱ̣ǵѡ񽫱÷dzҪǿһϵսȲ棬Ҳй档ҼǵԼɪ ν̽ʵʱ˵йΪˣйͿܳΪĵˡֿȷʵڣǶϣ־֣ǽۼڹѧΪ˱־ij֡

άΪںԼɪ?νڻشֳʹؼһ޴սѡ񣬲ǰٱĺӮѡʹӰϺӮĵ·ľ壬˫Ѿʮеһͬ졢ӮΨһȷѡ

йѡûκѣΪǵĻкͶͬӮĻʵԼĹУҲչʾİݵĻ֮һ־ͷdzойҵΪࡰҪͨӵĵѧﵽǻ۵㡱(Confuciusmoral philosophy was the gate through which it is necessary to pass to arrive at the sublimest wisdom )˹ ܸѷԼ ǵ˹˹ ˶ѧ˵ȡ˴ǻۡ

ͬйԼĹҲȡ˴֪ʶǻۣһֱѧϰڻѧϰҪѧϰհģʽհ˵ģʽɹҲͬģʽв⡣

ǵ۹dzԽģʽġйĴϽʷģĸĸ̽Ҳкܶɹľ飬вݣҸΪֵоرǺͶͬӮľ顣

ϣܹ͹۵ءʵǵ֪йDzԶΪԼ档ԡŦԼʱ˵ôĵһһؽйǻDzԸ͹۵йû취ˣʵҲںǾǼںڰǻ(we could leave you in darkness)ڵĽǣǡ

ʷѽһؼʱ̡ҪֹκΰϵսŬսǻһֲֿƽ⣬νMAD (mutually assured destructionȷŵĻ)ѡ˫Ͷ綼Ϊصĺ˵ġ衱

ǽȫѡMADðٱMAP(ȷŵķmutually assured prosperity)ѡ񽫸ĺƽͷ١ǻܸΪ¸ҵǰһͬΪ˹ͬܶĹϵͻᷢչøø˳

ٴθлᣬʹֱڹѧĽ̳ϣڽйĻͳϵͬʱλȫӰĹڵԼ̹ϵĿҲϣҽݽᱻͳɡллң(ȫЦҹ)

λרҹѧۡй÷չϵ
λרҹѧۡй÷չϵ


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